At 2026 EU-average energy prices a heat pump is cheaper to run than a gas boiler: with electricity at €0.29/kWh and gas at €0.12/kWh (Eurostat, H2 2025), a SCOP 3.5 heat pump delivers heat at about 8.3 cents/kWh versus 13.6 cents/kWh from a 90%-efficient boiler — roughly 35–40% less. The deciding number is the electricity-to-gas price ratio: below about 3.2, the heat pump wins.
What does a kilowatt-hour of heat cost in 2026?
Compare fuels per kWh of delivered heat, not per kWh of fuel. A heat pump with a seasonal efficiency (SCOP) of 3.5 turns one unit of electricity into 3.5 units of heat; a condensing gas boiler delivers about 0.9 units of heat per unit of gas. Applying Eurostat household prices for the second half of 2025:
| Market | Electricity | Gas | Ratio | Heat pump (SCOP 3.5) | Gas boiler (90%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU average | €0.290/kWh | €0.123/kWh | 2.4 | €0.083/kWh heat | €0.136/kWh heat |
| Ireland | €0.404/kWh | ≈€0.151/kWh | 2.7 | €0.115/kWh heat | €0.168/kWh heat |
| UK (standard tariff) | ≈€0.31/kWh | ≈€0.085/kWh | 3.6 | €0.089/kWh heat | €0.094/kWh heat |
At the EU average, a home needing 15,000 kWh of heat per year pays about €1,240 with the heat pump versus €2,040 with the boiler — a saving near €800 per year. In high-ratio markets such as the UK the two are close to parity on standard tariffs, and dedicated heat pump tariffs tip the balance to the heat pump.
What is the break-even electricity-to-gas price ratio?
The rule: a heat pump is cheaper to run whenever the electricity-to-gas price ratio is lower than the heat pump's SCOP multiplied by the boiler's efficiency — about 3.2 for SCOP 3.5, about 3.6 for SCOP 4.0. Eurostat puts the EU-average ratio at roughly 2.4 in late 2025, and the EU Electrification Action Plan (July 2026) explicitly targets a household ratio of 2.5 or lower by 2030 by shifting levies off electricity. Raising the SCOP works from the other side: low flow temperatures, weather compensation and correct sizing push real-world seasonal performance (JAZ) from 3 toward 4.5.
How will ETS2 change gas heating bills from 2028?
From 1 January 2028 the EU's second emissions trading system puts a carbon price on heating fuels (launch was moved from 2027 to 2028 in the deal adopted in March 2026). As a rule of thumb, €50 per tonne of CO2 adds about 1 cent to every kWh of natural gas — roughly 10–15% on a typical gas bill, or €84–210 per household per year at a €59/t price. Gas costs are structurally rising while the EPBD has already banned public subsidies for stand-alone fossil boilers since January 2025. A boiler bought in 2026 will spend its whole 15–20-year life under carbon pricing; a heat pump rides electricity's falling carbon intensity instead.
Can cheap tariffs and solar make the heat pump even cheaper?
Yes — flexibility is the heat pump's second advantage. SG-Ready units shift operation into cheap tariff windows or midday solar production, and pairing with a buffer tank or domestic hot water cylinder stores that cheap heat. UK heat pump tariffs already undercut gas heating costs for typical homes. Solimpeks systems go a step further by coupling Solimpeks heat pumps with solar thermal or PV-T hybrid collectors, so part of the heat arrives at zero marginal cost — the logic detailed in PVT vs separate PV and solar thermal.
What about purchase price and grants?
Heat pumps cost more upfront, but 2026 subsidies close most of the gap: Germany's BEG pays 30–80% of eligible costs, the UK Boiler Upgrade Scheme grants £7,500 (with a £9,000 uplift for oil/LPG-heated off-grid homes until March 2027), Ireland doubled its grant to as much as €12,500 in February 2026, and Italy's Conto Termico 3.0 covers up to 65% as a direct grant. Meanwhile fossil boilers can no longer receive public incentives anywhere in the EU. European buyers responded: heat pump sales rose 13% in 2025 to 2.88 million units (EHPA). Check the current national rules before budgeting — rates in Germany, France and Poland all changed mid-2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas boiler in 2026?
In most EU markets, yes: at the EU-average electricity-to-gas ratio of about 2.4, a SCOP 3.5 heat pump beats a 90% boiler by 35–40% on running cost. Only where the ratio exceeds roughly 3.2 — such as the UK on standard tariffs — is it near parity, before heat pump tariffs are applied.
How much can I save per year by switching?
A home needing 15,000 kWh of heat saves roughly €800 per year at EU-average prices, and more from 2028 as ETS2 carbon costs load onto gas. Actual savings depend on national prices, your tariff and the installed system's seasonal efficiency.
Will gas prices rise because of ETS2?
Yes — from 1 January 2028 fuel suppliers pass the EU carbon price through to customers. Each €50/t of CO2 adds about 1 cent per kWh of gas, and independent estimates put typical household impacts at €84–210 per year in the early years.
Does a heat pump still pay off if my electricity is expensive?
Compare the ratio, not the absolute price: Ireland has the EU's most expensive electricity yet heat pumps still run about 30% cheaper than gas because the ratio is only 2.7. High-SCOP installation and time-of-use tariffs improve the margin further.