Welcome to The Solar Brief, our monthly five-minute read on the news moving European heating markets. Six items made the cut for August — a subsidy countdown in Germany, a warning letter to 27 governments, a record-breaking metal and a carbon price that blinked.
1. European heat pump sales are growing again.
EHPA's June data release puts 2025 sales at 2.88 million units across 21 countries, up 13% on 2024 — with Germany rebounding a remarkable +50% as heat pumps took half of all new space-heater sales there for the first time. France led on sheer volume with 528,000 units, and Q1 2026 added another 17% across 11 reporting countries.
Why it matters: the 2024 slump is officially over — distributors should plan stock and installer capacity for growth, not caution.
2. Germany put its heating subsidies on a countdown clock.
The reformed BEG took effect on 21 July: the 30% base grant survives, but the climate-speed bonus for replacing a working fossil boiler drops from 20% to 16% and now shrinks every six months until it hits zero in August 2028. The eligible-cost ceiling falls from €30,000 to €28,000 too. Our guide to German heating subsidies has the full numbers.
Why it matters: in Germany, waiting now has a price tag — "the sooner you switch, the more you get" belongs in every quote.
3. Brussels sent a warning letter to all 27 member states.
On 15 July the European Commission opened infringement procedures against every single EU country for failing to fully transpose the EPBD buildings directive by the 29 May deadline. The rooftop solar mandate, the zero-emission building standard and the 2040 boiler phase-out are all still coming — national law is simply running late.
Why it matters: delayed transposition is not cancelled regulation — specifiers should design to the directive, not to the gap.
4. Steel got sharply more expensive in Europe.
The EU's overhauled steel safeguard went live on 1 July, nearly halving duty-free import quotas to 18.3 million tonnes and doubling the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. Some HVAC manufacturers in the EU have signalled price adjustments.
Why it matters: steel is the backbone of tanks, frames and casings, so distributors planning autumn projects should confirm current price lists and lead times with their suppliers early.
5. Copper is still trading near record territory.
LME copper touched a record of roughly $14,527 per tonne in January; forecasters expect prices to stay elevated, and UBS sees $15,500 by mid-2027 on a structural supply deficit running to 2030.
Why it matters: copper sits in every absorber, coil and compressor — procurement teams should hedge, not hope.
6. ETS2 blinked — carbon pricing on heating fuels slips to 2028.
The EU formally postponed the launch of ETS2 by one year to January 2028, though allowance auctioning still starts in 2027 and pre-funds the Social Climate Fund. The direction of travel is unchanged: fossil heating gets structurally more expensive.
Why it matters: the deadline moved, the argument didn't — solar thermal and heat pumps remain the hedge against the coming carbon price.
See you in September.